Election Prediction

After tonight, I’ll be able to resume normal blogging (or what passes for “normal” around here).

My election prediction:

Conservatives – 138
Liberals – 85
NDP – 35
BQ – 48
Green – 0
Independent – 2 (Casey [NS], Arthur [QC])

Other predictions:

South of 60° and west of Ontario, not more than 5 Liberal seats.
NDP sweep of Northern Ontario
Conservatives will take more than 50% of Ontario’s seats.
“Outer” 905 will fall to the Conservatives, Liberals will hold “Inner” 905.
3 NDP seats in Toronto (416).
2 NDP seats in Québec.

Emotionally, I’d like to predict a small Conservative majority — the party has momentum again — but that would depend on taking seats from the BQ in Québec that I just don’t see happening (although Vancouver is hardly the place to follow Québec Federal Politics from!).

As for why I’ve been silent these past six weeks, I have (a) not wanted to comment on a set of inept campaigns, (b) not wanted to run afoul of the watchdogs at Elections Canada [we really need to overturn the election “gag” law and restore free speech for citizens], and (c) didn’t see the point of commenting on this Seinfeldian exercise. Up until the unwarranted panic about the financial meltdown south of the border and in Europe this was truly an election about nothing.

I look forward to seeing you tomorrow and in the days ahead, when my free speech rights are no longer alienated under the deceitful cover of “a limit proper to a democratic society”.

From Ottawa (probably the least important place in the country today).

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